We summarise our ten predictions for this General Election year.
Let’s be honest. New Year’s prediction lists rarely cover themselves with glory. The pandemic lay largely unpredicted. Despite Brexit, everyone got their medicine. And we’re still waiting for our post-Covid consumer boom.
So rather than “going wide” with this year’s list, we’ve decided to keep our musings focused. As we enter General Election year, here’s ten political predictions.
1. The General Election will “go long”
Rishi Sunak has all but ruled out a May poll. This is no surprise. After the Liz Truss interregnum, his only chance of victory was to establish himself as a competent leader (one that could make “tough choices”). Once “economic credibility” was “restored” he could try and pluck a few rabbits from the hat ahead of facing the voters.
It’s a strategy that depends on time. It’s unlikely that an early poll was ever on the cards.
2. Tory chaos will continue
Chris Skidmore’s resignation is a sign of things to come. As Conservative MPs anticipate Armageddon, party discipline will reach John Major levels of disarray. It won’t be the big-ticket stuff. The Rwanda Bill probably will pass and the rebels will likely resist the urge to tackle Sunak directly. But a constant stream of low-level poison will continue to pollute the electoral well.
3. The gap in the polls will close…
Labour’s biggest fear is that their commanding poll lead will breed complacency. So they’ve kicked off the New Year by doubling down on the stats. In every previous “change” election, so advisors have warned the shadow cabinet, the favourite has boasted a commanding lead six months before the contest, only to see it eroded (and sometimes eliminated) as polling day approaches.
Given the high numbers of former Conservative voters that are still polling as “undecided”, history may repeat itself.
4. …but it probably won’t close by much
Tory high command begins the year with just one hope. That as polls start to dip, Labour’s fragile unity collapses like a house of cards. Left-wing warriors will break ranks, hark back to the days of Corbyn and remind the electorate that they are an unreconstructed band of radicals.
But Sunak and his dwindling number of allies shouldn’t get their hopes up. The parliamentary Labour Party has demonstrated impeccable discipline despite being tested by some identity-defining issues. The fact that the left largely swallowed Starmer’s pro-Israeli stance during the autumn shows the size of their appetite for government. Labour’s desire to win is so strong that even a Corbyn-led breakaway is unlikely to disrupt their unity.
5. Labour will form a majority government
A week is a long time in politics. Anything can change. But it’s difficult to see what could prevent Keir Starmer from heading the next government – and being able to do so without the need for a coalition partner. It won’t be a Blair-style victory. Tactical voting will play a part (see below). A Labour majority or between 40-90 is on the cards.
6. The Liberal Democrats may finally bounce back…
Prediction sites, such as Electoral Calculus, see the Lib Dems securing around 30 seats, up from 15 now. These models are based on an even swing. They don’t account for tactical voting, which is firmly back in play. If the pattern established during the recent byelections replicates during the general, it could create two positive outcomes for Britain’s third party (see below).
7. …as they give the Tories a western flank challenge…
Unusually, Labour nudged up to a (distant) second in many South West seats in 2017 and 2019. So when polling companies make predictions based on an even swing, the model projects a number of Conservatives clinging on by the skin of their teeth. Despite the substantial uplift in the Labour vote, these models show it is not quite enough to erode the Tory majorities.
But recent byelection results suggest that the anti-Tory vote is aligning behind the traditional, rather than most recent, challenger. So the opportunity for the Lib Dems is strong.
What’s less clear, is whether they are geared up to grasp it. Encouraging tactical voting is one of the few scenarios where local campaigning actually has some cut through. If Ed Davey continues to focus resources on the South East’s “blue wall” (where demographics and income levels are markedly different to the South West) he may miss out on the chance of a west country revival.
8. …and they dent Labour’s majority
This is one of the reasons we haven’t taken a punt on a three-figure Labour majority. Current predictions, based on an even swing, suggest Starmer’s party will sweep up many Southern seats that have never turned red. Again, this fails to consider tactical voting. It is the traditional challenger, not the most recent, that is sweeping up anti-Tory support. Some Labour targets could yet become Lib Dem victories.
9. The smaller parties will snap and crackle but ultimately pop
The Greens will sway some of Labour’s disaffected. Farage may “show some ankle” to the right by teaming up with Reform. But while these might result in higher vote shares, such a surge is unlikely to translate into Parliamentary seats. First past the post will once again ensure the preservation of two-party (or two-and-a-half-party) politics.
10. There will be at least one surprise that no one will see coming
And we can’t predict it either. But all the psephologically realignments and evolutions that have characterised the last decade, could ensure yet more upset for pollsters and commentators. Could predictions of a mighty Labour majority push affluent urban remainers back toward the Conservatives? Might mass red wall defections to Reform create a seismic split on the right? Could Corbyn’s threat of a “real” Labour party actually gain some traction?
It’s (again) time to expect the unexpected.