This week the UK goes to the polls. The new Parliament is likely to be the youngest and most diverse ever. How could this change politics? Andrew Niblett and Tom Blake of Navigate Politics discuss.
Labour are predicted to win a record number of seats in the House of Commons, with the polls suggesting a huge wipeout of Conservative MPs, just a little under five years after Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority.
Coupled with the impact of 132 MPs standing down at the end of the last Parliament, the House of Commons is set to have a dramatically different look when the new cohort are sworn in from Tuesday 9th July.
As that date comes ever closer, we’ve taken a look at what that new Parliament could look like…
The next Parliament will continue the trend of increasing female participation. If, as expected, Labour wins a large majority, it could be 40% female, with as many as 260 female candidates currently predicted to win – an increase from 35% in 2019. However, Labour’s proportion of female MPs is actually forecast to drop from a historic 52% in 2019 to 45%. In a bizarre inversion, incumbent female Tory MPs appear on average to hold safer seats, meaning that in the anticipated wipeout the party’s proportion of female MPs in the Commons will actually increase (marginally) from 25% to 27%. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, have selected more male candidates for safer seats, meaning that they will reduce their proportion of female MPs from 66% to 40% even if they triple their number of seats.
Increasing female participation is mirrored by an improvement in representation of minority ethnic group MPs. The next Parliament is expected to be the most diverse yet, with Labour on course to send between 65 and 75 minority ethnic group MPs to the Commons. To put this in perspective, a total of 65 minority ethnic group MPs were elected across all parties in 2019. This means that approximately 15% of the House will be from a minority ethnic group background, approaching parity with the 18% of the UK population that identifies as having a minority ethnic group background. Labour has also selected more minority ethnic group candidates in winnable seats… In the event of a 16% swing, 60% of its minority ethnic group candidates will win their seats, compared to just 20% for the Conservatives.
There will likely be a quite significant drop in the average age of MPs in the next Parliament, from 51 to 46, which would be the lowest in the last half-century by nearly 3 years. This will be due to a rise in the number of ‘Millennial’ (born between 1981-1996) MPs, as well as a significant decrease in the proportion of MPs aged over 50 from 51% to 42%. However those at the lower end of the age spectrum (18-29) are not expected to rise dramatically (around 23 MPs in this bracket based on current predictions), compared to 21 after the 2019 General Election. We could also see the first MP born this century, if Sam Carling wins North East Cambridgeshire off former Cabinet Minister Shailesh Vara. With 7 of the 11 longest-serving MPs from 2019 not seeking re-election, and 20 former Conservative Cabinet Ministers standing down (and more likely to lose their seats), the next Parliament will also likely be far less experienced than its predecessor.
So… an increase in female MPs, ethnic minority MPs and youngsters has the potential to reshape both the working practices and character of the House of Commons, and the political issues that drive day to day politics. Both the practicalities of childcare in Parliament and its salience as a national issue may increase, while appetite for genuine housing reform might drive the issue forward. As 1997 heralded a new generation of MPs eager to change the course of the nation after 18 years of Conservative rule, so the 2024 intake will be looking to do the same.